Hinkley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

868
FXUS65 KVEF 161156
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
456 AM PDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Today through midweek, expect similar temperatures. Late-
week, a dynamic weather system moves into the region, which will
increase chances of precipitation, gusty winds, and will cool off
temperatures substantially.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Friday Night.

The upper level low currently sitting of the southern California
Coast will begin to move inland this afternoon. Much of the CWA will
remain in the favored region of the incoming low with strong upper
diffluence and increased vorticity advection; however, there
continues to be a lack of moisture and significant instability. It
looks like most of the area will see increasing clouds this
afternoon, but the better chances of seeing any showers along with
an isolated thunderstorm will be across the higher terrain of
northern Inyo, Esmeralda, and western Nye counties where higher CAPE
values exist along with lifted indices around 0/-1. Rainfall
amounts will generally be light with totals under a tenth of an
inch. Snow amounts will also remain light with snow levels generally
around 9000 feet in the Sierra.

As the southern California low moves onshore this evening it will
begin to weaken as a stronger upper level low drops south out of the
Pacific Northwest. Surface gradients along with a strong low level
jet will set up across the western Mojave Desert leading to gusty
winds starting this evening and continuing into Friday morning where
wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph are expected. At this point, it
does not look like the stronger winds will extend into eastern San
Bernardino County, but gusts between 25 and 35 mph will still be
likely. It also look like winds across western San Bernardino County
will remain elevated through at least Friday morning. Will go ahead
and issue a Wind Advisory from 5pm this evening until 5am Friday
morning to account for these gusty southwest to west winds.

The closed low and northern shortwave trough begin to phase on
Thursday, resulting in a larger, positively-tilted trough over the
western US. At the surface, guidance shows a cold front sliding
southward through the southern Great Basin and northern Mojave
Desert. The frontal boundary should serve as the focus for
precipitation as moisture pools along ahead of it and underneath
the colder air aloft. Expecting scattered shower and isolated
thunderstorms to develop along the front Thursday afternoon, with
activity potentially continuing Thursday night and Friday as the
front sags southward. There`s a fair amount of uncertainty in
model guidance regarding the convective environment Thursday-
Friday, mainly due to discrepancies in the magnitude of low-level
moisture and its overlap with the coldest air aloft. However, it is
likely that at least modest instability (100-400 J/kg) will occur.
With wet bulb zero heights roughly 4500-6000 ft AGL in forecast
soundings, would not be surprised to see graupel and/or small hail
with the more intense convection. While PWATs are forecast to be
above the 90th percentile of climatology, this is nothing like
monsoonal moisture, so it`ll take training storms to cause any flood
concerns, and that would likely be localized and relatively minor.
On the wintry side, snow levels drop from over 8000 ft down to ~6500
ft, so some late-season minor snow accumulations are likely in the
Spring Mountains and Sierra.

Other than the precipitation chances, we will see gusty northerly
winds across Inyo, Esmeralda, and Nye counties where winds may be
strong enough for wind advisories Friday. Right now, there is about
a 40-60% chance of advisory level winds being reached. Another big
change will the temperature drop from today into Friday. Today we
are still looking at readings about 7-10 degrees above normal, but
by Friday temperatures will be about 7-10 degrees below normal with
the possibility that Las Vegas struggles to reach 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday.

As we head into the weekend, ensemble guidance has the closed low
pushing out to the east, leaving us under a drier northwesterly or
zonal flow. Not only do precipitation chances wane, but temperatures
begin to moderate to seasonal values. By Sunday, forecast highs are
near or slightly above normal, and hold fairly steady into next
week. The synoptic pattern in the extended will favor inside sliders
or shortwaves passing well to our north. As these move by, periods
of gusty winds are possible.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 12Z Forecast Package...Light
and variable winds at KLAS this morning will settle out of the
southeast by 18Z, with sustained speeds increasing to 10-12KT and
higher gusts up to 20KT expected. Through the afternoon, winds
will gradually veer to the southwest, remaining elevated and at
least intermittently gusty, with a moderate to high probability of
wind gusts reaching 20KT late afternoon onward, but a low
probability of gusts reaching 25KT during the same time period.
The peak period for gusts looks to be during the late evening,
though gusts to around 20KT will be possible through 13Z.
Thereafter, winds will diminish, but remain southwesterly. VFR
conditions will prevail through the period, with passing high
clouds with bases around 15-25kft.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 12Z Forecast Package...This morning, most
locations will see light and variable winds, before winds shift
to the southeast and south-southeast around 16-18Z. At that
point, winds become elevated and at least intermittently gusty
areawide, with gusts to around 20-25KT common. KDAG will see the
strongest winds, with sustained speeds early this morning around
10-12KT, gradually increasing through the day with sustained
speeds up to 25KT with gusts to around 35KT expected after 17/00Z.
Elsewhere, the aforementioned southerly to southeasterly winds
will shift to the southwest this evening, with gusts diminishing
for all but KDAG and KHND. KHND will see gusty southwesterly winds
through the night, with gusts increasing to 25-30KT late in the
period. KBIH, overall, is the outlier, with southerly winds this
afternoon and a round of showers expected in the vicinity of the
terminal late afternoon through early evening. Erratic gusty winds
are expected, and a lightning strike cannot be ruled out.
Conditions improve after 17/03Z, with winds veering to the
northwest and north, and another round of showers possible after
17/08Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail, with rounds of SCT-BKN
clouds around 15-25kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gorelow
LONG TERM...Woods
AVIATION...Phillipson

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